Operational & Commercial Plan
Establish Direct Off-take Agreement: Midland Cosmos must register as a major off-taker with the Dangote Refinery and negotiate a direct purchasing agreement, bypassing the need for an intermediary like the NNPC Trading Limited, which has acted as the sole off-taker in the past.
Secure Funding and Logistics: Arrange necessary financing to purchase approximately 10 million barrels of refined products monthly and contract appropriate logistics and shipping partners. The refinery's location on the open sea offers a strategic advantage for exports and maritime trade.
Product Assortment: While the query specifies "refined crude," the refined products are typically gasoline (PMS), diesel, and jet fuel. The plan should focus on these products, as the refinery produces them to Euro V specifications, which are globally competitive.
Pricing Strategy: Pricing will be influenced by international crude oil prices (e.g., Brent crude benchmark) and local market dynamics, including the Naira exchange rate. The refinery has adjusted prices based on global market fluctuations.
Domestic vs. Export Allocation: Note that the refinery has an obligation to meet Nigeria's domestic demand first, which is a key factor in determining the surplus available for export. A reliable monthly export volume depends on meeting local needs and the refinery's operational capacity.
Regulatory Compliance
Midland Cosmos must comply with all Nigerian regulatory requirements:
Obtain Necessary Permits: Secure an Off-take Permit from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to lift and distribute/export products.
Export Permit: Obtain an Export Permit through the Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment's COTEX platform before any loading operations.
Advance Cargo Declaration: Submit an advance declaration to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for each cargo, including volume, destination, and proposed export date.
Cargo Inspection: Allow NUPRC to inspect and verify the cargo quantity and quality at the shipping terminal before loading.
Target Markets and Buyers
West Africa: This is the primary regional market due to proximity, with countries like Ghana, Benin, and Togo being key targets.
Global Markets: The refinery has already exported to diverse international markets, which Midland Cosmos can leverage:
Europe: Markets include the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy.
North America: The United States and Canada have received refined products from the refinery.
Asia: Countries like Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia, and India are also proven destinations.
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A comprehensive feasibility study for Midland Cosmos would evaluate the project's practicality across market, technical, organizational, and financial dimensions. The proforma financial reports would forecast performance based on a monthly export of 10 million barrels. A key strategy for meeting winter grade product specifications involves specialized blending at the refinery or terminal stage.
Feasibility Study Overview
A full feasibility study for Midland Cosmos' export operation would cover several key areas:
Market Feasibility: Analyze demand in target cold-weather markets (Europe, North America, specific Asian regions) and competition from other global suppliers.
Technical Feasibility: Assess logistics, storage capacity (at the Dangote Refinery export terminal), and the ability to transport and store winter-grade products, including necessary blending equipment.
Operational Feasibility: Plan the supply chain from the refinery off-take to shipping, including staffing, EHS (Environment, Health, and Safety) compliance, and risk management (e.g., fuel gelling in non-winterized logistics).
Financial Feasibility: Project capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX), including the added cost of winterization. Conduct profitability analysis, including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and a clear "go/no-go" recommendation for stakeholders.
Legal & Regulatory Feasibility: Ensure all permits are in place for blending and exporting specialized fuel products from Nigeria, adhering to both Nigerian and international destination-market regulations.
Proforma Financial Reports
Proforma statements are forward-looking and based on assumptions about future performance. For a 10 million barrel monthly export operation, key components would include:
Projected Income Statement: This would forecast revenue (based on projected international prices for winter-grade products, which are often at a premium), costs (purchase price from Dangote, blending costs, logistics, shipping, regulatory fees), and ultimately, projected profit margins.
Projected Balance Sheet: An opening day balance sheet would list initial assets (cash, off-take contracts) and liabilities. Future statements would show the growth in assets (accounts receivable) and the management of liabilities.
Cash Flow Statement: This critical report would detail the inflow and outflow of cash, accounting for the significant working capital required to purchase 10 million barrels monthly and the timing of payments from international buyers.
Key Assumptions: The reports would explicitly state assumptions, such as the consistent availability of 10 million barrels from Dangote, average pricing benchmarks (e.g., Brent crude, plus premiums for refined and winterized products), and a stable Naira exchange rate for local costs.
Strategy to Meet Winter Grade Products
Dangote Refinery produces Euro V-specification products, but the specific "winter grade" characteristic is often achieved through post-refinement blending, as Nigeria's climate does not necessitate winterization.
Additive Blending: The primary strategy is to use anti-gel and pour-point depressant additives. These agents alter the wax crystal structure in diesel, preventing gelling and clogging of fuel lines and filters in sub-zero temperatures.
Midland Cosmos would need to invest in specialized hydrodynamic cavitation mixing units, as improper mixing can lead to separation of the blend components over time.
Blending with No. 1 Diesel (Kerosene): A common method involves blending standard No. 2 diesel (summer grade) with No. 1 diesel (kerosene), which has excellent cold-flow properties but lower energy content. The ratio would depend entirely on the destination market's specific climate conditions and required cold-flow specifications (e.g., a 70/30 blend for moderate cold, 50/50 for extreme cold).
Logistics Timing: The export operations should align with seasonal demand, with winter-grade blending starting around October and continuing through March to ensure the product reaches northern hemisphere markets before the onset of severe cold weather.
Certification and Testing: Each batch of winter-grade product must be rigorously tested and certified to meet the specific cloud point and pour point specifications of the destination country, ensuring compliance and market acceptance
Midland Cosmos must establish direct off-take agreements with the Dangote Refinery, ensure strict regulatory compliance for exports, and target the high-demand European and North American winter markets. Meeting winter grade specifications will be achieved through strategic blending at the export terminal.
Proforma Financial Reports (Monthly Projections based on 10 Million Barrels)
The following proforma reports project a single month of operations, using current average market prices and assumptions for Q1 2026. Prices are indicative and fluctuate based on global benchmarks and the Naira exchange rate. The assumed average FOB selling price is $105 per barrel and the purchase price from Dangote is $85 per barrel.
Projected Income Statement (Per Month)
Revenue and Expenses Amount (Millions USD)
Revenue (10m bbls @ ~$105/bbl) $1,050.00
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
Product Purchase (@ ~$85/bbl) $850.00
Blending/Additives Cost $1.50
Logistics & Shipping (@ ~$3/bbl) $30.00
Gross Profit $168.50
Operating Expenses
Regulatory & Compliance Fees $0.50
Salaries & Admin $1.00
Operating Income $167.00
Interest Expense (e.g., Trade Finance) $5.00
Net Income Before Taxes $162.00
Projected Balance Sheet (Snapshot)
Assets Amount (Millions USD) Liabilities & Equity Amount (Millions USD)
Current Assets Current Liabilities
Cash $50.00 Accounts Payable (Dangote) $850.00
Accounts Receivable $1,050.00 Trade Finance Loan $850.00
Inventory (In Transit) $850.00 Total Current Liabilities $1,700.00
Total Assets $1,950.00 Owner's Equity $250.00
Total L + E $1,950.00
Projected Cash Flow Statement (Per Month)
Cash Flow from Operations Amount (Millions USD)
Net Income $162.00
Adjustments (e.g., Depreciation) $1.00
Changes in Working Capital ($1,000.00)
Net Cash Flow from Operations ($837.00)
Note: The negative operational cash flow highlights the need for significant initial working capital or robust trade financing to cover product purchase before payment is received from buyers.
Strategy to Meet Winter Grade Products
As Nigeria is a tropical nation, the Dangote Refinery primarily produces standard specifications. Midland Cosmos' strategy focuses on post-refinement specialization to meet stringent international winter-grade requirements.
Additive Injection and Blending: Midland Cosmos will use specialized pour-point depressant (PPD) and anti-gel chemical additives. This process will be conducted at the export terminal to ensure the refined diesel can withstand sub-zero temperatures (down to specific cloud and pour points required by destination markets).
Logistics Timing: The export schedule will be seasonally optimized. Shipments intended for Northern Hemisphere markets (Europe, North America, parts of Asia) will be prioritized from September through December to arrive before the peak winter season.
Third-Party Certification: Each blended cargo will undergo independent third-party testing and certification to verify it meets the required cold flow properties (e.g., ASTM D97 pour point test), ensuring quality control and market confidence.
Market Diversification: While targeting winter markets for premium pricing, Midland Cosmos will maintain the flexibility to divert standard-grade products to warm-weather markets in West Africa, South America, or Southeast Asia to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single market segment.
The following details the strategic plan, proforma financials, and winter grade product strategy for a hypothetical entity named Midland Cosmos, based on the parameters previously provided.
Strategic Plan
Midland Cosmos will secure a direct off-take agreement with the Dangote Refinery to purchase 10 million barrels of refined products per month. Regulatory compliance is critical, necessitating permits from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) for off-take and an export permit via the Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment's COTEX platform. Logistics and shipping partners will be contracted to transport the refined products to target international markets, primarily in Europe and North America, which require winter-grade specifications. The Dangote Refinery already exports globally, providing a proven market pathway.
Proforma Financial Reports (Monthly Projections based on 10 Million Barrels)
The following proforma reports are based on a projected average Free On Board (FOB) selling price of $105 per barrel and a purchase price from Dangote of $85 per barrel, with other costs approximated.
Projected Income Statement (Per Month)
Revenue and Expenses Amount (Millions USD)
Revenue (10m bbls @ ~$105/bbl) $1,050.00
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
Product Purchase (@ ~$85/bbl) $850.00
Blending/Additives Cost $1.50
Logistics & Shipping (@ ~$3/bbl) $30.00
Gross Profit $168.50
Operating Expenses
Regulatory & Compliance Fees $0.50
Salaries & Admin $1.00
Operating Income $167.00
Interest Expense (e.g., Trade Finance) $5.00
Net Income Before Taxes $162.00
Projected Balance Sheet (Snapshot)
Assets Amount (Millions USD) Liabilities & Equity Amount (Millions USD)
Current Assets Current Liabilities
Cash $50.00 Accounts Payable (Dangote) $850.00
Accounts Receivable $1,050.00 Trade Finance Loan $850.00
Inventory (In Transit) $850.00 Total Current Liabilities $1,700.00
Total Assets $1,950.00 Owner's Equity $250.00
Total L + E $1,950.00
Projected Cash Flow Statement (Per Month)
Cash Flow from Operations Amount (Millions USD)
Net Income $162.00
Adjustments (e.g., Depreciation) $1.00
Changes in Working Capital ($1,000.00)
Net Cash Flow from Operations ($837.00)
Strategy to Meet Winter Grade Products
Midland Cosmos will implement a specialized blending strategy to convert standard refined products into winter grade fuel.
Additive Blending: The primary approach involves injecting anti-gel and pour-point depressant additives into the refined diesel at the export terminal to prevent gelling in sub-zero temperatures.
Logistics Timing: Exports will be timed to coincide with seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere (shipping between September and December).
Quality Control: Each cargo will undergo independent third-party testing and certification to verify it meets the destination market's specific cold-flow requirements, ensuring compliance and market acceptance
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Midland Cosmos must establish direct off-take agreements with the Dangote Refinery, ensure strict regulatory compliance for exports, and target the high-demand European and North American winter markets. Meeting winter grade specifications will be achieved through strategic blending at the export terminal.
Proforma Financial Reports (Monthly Projections based on 10 Million Barrels)
The following proforma reports project a single month of operations, using average market prices and assumptions for 2026. The assumed average FOB selling price is $105 per barrel, the purchase price from Dangote is $85 per barrel, and logistics costs are around $3 per barrel. These figures are subject to change based on global oil market fluctuations (Brent crude was around $66.19 a barrel on January 15, 2026) and the Naira exchange rate.
Projected Income Statement (Per Month)
Projected Balance Sheet (Snapshot)
Assets Amount (Millions USD) Liabilities & Equity Amount (Millions USD)
Current Assets Current Liabilities
Cash $50.00 Accounts Payable (Dangote) $850.00
Accounts Receivable $1,050.00 Trade Finance Loan $850.00
Inventory (In Transit) $850.00 Total Current Liabilities $1,700.00
Total Assets $1,950.00 Owner's Equity $250.00
Total L + E $1,950.00
Projected Cash Flow Statement (Per Month)
Cash Flow from Operations Amount (Millions USD)
Net Income $162.00
Adjustments (e.g., Depreciation) $1.00
Changes in Working Capital ($1,000.00)
Net Cash Flow from Operations ($837.00)
Strategy to Meet Winter Grade Products
Midland Cosmos will implement a specialized blending strategy to convert standard refined products into winter grade fuel.
Additive Blending: The primary approach involves injecting anti-gel and pour-point depressant additives into the refined diesel at the export terminal to prevent gelling in sub-zero temperatures.
Logistics Timing: Exports will be timed to coincide with seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere (shipping between September and December).
Quality Control: Each cargo will undergo independent third-party testing and certification to verify it meets the destination market's specific cold-flow requirements, ensuring compliance and market acceptance.
Key Trading Companies & Contacts
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Major Export Markets and Buyers (2025-2026 Data)
The primary export markets for Nigerian crude oil and gas are India, Europe (Spain, France, Netherlands), and the United States. Key buyers typically have term contracts with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) or make purchases via major global trading houses.
Crude Oil Export Markets & Buyers
Buyers of Nigerian crude value its high quality (e.g., Bonny Light, Qua Iboe) for gasoline and diesel blending.
Image of India
India
Country in South Asia
India: Remained the largest single buyer in Q1 2025, with state-owned refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd being primary importers.
Image of United States
United States
Country in North America
United States: A significant market, with Nigeria leading African exporters to the U.S. in 2025.
Image of Europe
Europe
Continent
These countries are major refining and redistribution hubs and key buyers as part of Europe's energy diversification strategy.
Natural Gas (LNG) Export Markets & Buyers
Europe remains the largest regional market, with Asia also being a critical destination.
Europe: Accounted for a substantial share of Nigerian LNG exports, with Spain and Portugal as prominent buyers.
Asia: Destinations include China, India, and South Korea.
Caribbean: Jamaica is an emerging market with increased imports of Nigerian LNG recorded in 2024.
Key Trading Companies & Official Contacts
Direct contact with specific international buyers is often handled through established trading companies or government bodies.
Major Global Traders:
Vitol SA
Trafigura Pte Ltd
Mercuria Energy Trading SA
BP Oil International Ltd
Nigerian Regulators and Trade Promotion:
For official trade inquiries and matchmaking services, contact the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) or the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for regulatory guidance.
Buyer directories can be accessed via the NEPC website to find potential international partners.
As of January 2026, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has transitioned into a major global supplier, with international trading giants and state-owned entities securing the majority of its export output.
1. Major International Trading Partners (The "Big Three")
Reports from late 2024 and throughout 2025 confirm that three companies dominate the lifting of refined products from the refinery, accounting for approximately 75% of total output.
Vitol SA: A primary buyer of diesel (AGO), fuel oil, and petrol.
Trafigura Pte Ltd: Heavily involved in the international distribution of refined products across Africa and Europe.
BP Oil International Ltd: A major off-taker for various refined products, including a significant 45,000-metric-ton tender for jet fuel.
Aviation (Jet) Fuel:
Saudi Aramco: Significant shipments (approximately 1.7 million barrels) were delivered to the world's largest energy company.
BP: Awarded large tenders for European delivery.
Gasoline (Petrol):
Mercuria Energy Trading: Handled the first major 90,000-metric-ton shipment to Asia in June 2025.
Shell: Purchased cargoes specifically for the U.S. market in late 2025.
Sunoco: A key North American distributor involved in U.S. East Coast shipments.
Naphtha & Polypropylene:
Vinmar International: Partnered for the global distribution of high-quality polypropylene.
South Korean & Singaporean Entities: Major destinations for naphtha (e.g., 23,000 b/d to South Korea).
3. Regional African Buyers
The refinery has established itself as a regional energy hub, supplying neighboring countries directly or through the Lome transshipment hub.
Ghana, Togo, and Senegal: Regular recipients of jet fuel and diesel shipments.
South Africa, Cameroon, and Angola: Markets identified as regular buyers as of mid-2025.
4. Official Contact Channels
For direct business inquiries regarding the purchase of refined products or partnership opportunities as of early 2026:
Sales Enquiry Email: sales.enquiry@dangote.com or pet-refinery.sales@dangote.com.
Direct Phone Lines: +234 1 448 0815 or +234 1 448 0816.
Physical Address: Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, Lekki Free Trade Zone, Ibeju Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria.
As of January 2026, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has firmly established its position as a global refining hub. Following its successful scale-up in 2025, the refinery now exports over 50 million liters of finished fuel daily to a network spanning four continents.
Proven Buyers and Trading Contacts (2026 Update)
The refinery’s export strategy is dominated by three major global commodity traders, who collectively handle approximately 75% of its total output.
1. Major Global Off-takers
Vitol Group: The largest buyer by volume, leading shipments of petrol and diesel to international markets, including the first major petrol cargo to the United States in late 2025.
Trafigura: A primary trader for African and European distribution, focusing on automotive gasoil (diesel) and fuel oil.
BP Plc: A key partner in the European market; notably awarded a 45,000-metric-ton tender for jet fuel.
Mercuria Energy Trading: Handled the refinery's maiden 90,000-metric-ton petrol shipment to Asia in June 2025.
2. Regional and International Buyers by Product
Jet Fuel (Aviation Fuel):
Saudi Aramco: Secured multiple consignments for the Saudi market.
European Airports: Regular shipments are now delivered to major hubs, including London Heathrow (UK), Tenerife (Spain), and Iceland.
Naphtha:
South Korea: Emerged as the largest single export destination for naphtha, receiving approximately 23,000 barrels per day.
Polypropylene:
Vinmar International: Distributed globally for use in the textile, plastic, and pharmaceutical sectors.
African Regional Markets:
Direct shipments of diesel and petrol are regularly supplied to Ghana, Cameroon, Angola, South Africa, and Togo.
Proven Distribution & Market Rates
Current Gantry Rate: As of late 2025/early 2026, the domestic gantry price for petrol was revised to approximately ₦699 per litre to maintain competitiveness.
Trading Hubs: The Lome transshipment hub (off Togo) serves as the primary regional distribution point for West African exports.
Domestic Market Contacts: For regional distribution within Nigeria, the refinery works through the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) and the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN).
Official Contact Information for Exports
For international export inquiries or to establish a trading relationship as of early 2026:
Sales Enquiry Email: sales.enquiry@dangote.com
Direct Phone Lines: +234 707 470 2099 or +234 707 470 2100
Major international trading companies secured supplies from the Dangote Refinery through commercial agreements, bidding in tenders, and leveraging their robust global logistics and distribution networks.
Key actions taken by companies like Vitol, Trafigura, and BP include:
Securing Off-take Agreements: The "Big Three" (Vitol, Trafigura, and BP) established themselves as the dominant buyers, accounting for approximately 75% of the refinery's initial export output of refined products, including diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.
Bidding on Tenders: Companies actively participated in competitive tenders issued by the refinery. For instance, Trafigura was awarded the first cargo of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil via tender in early 2024, and Vitol secured specific tenders for U.S.-bound gasoline cargoes in 2025.
Facilitating International Shipments: These traders utilized their extensive shipping and logistics capabilities to transport the refined products globally. Vitol and Sunoco, a North American distributor, facilitated the first delivery of Dangote gasoline to the United States market in September 2025. Other shipments reached Europe, Asia, and other African nations through the logistics of these trading firms.
Meeting Quality Standards: The refinery produces fuels that conform to high international standards, such as Euro V specifications and U.S. EPA norms, which allowed these traders to market and sell the products in stringent international markets where demand exists.
Leveraging Existing Relationships: Trafigura notably had an existing relationship, having sold the refinery two million barrels of U.S. WTI Midland crude for its initial processing runs in early 2024, which likely facilitated further supply chain agreements.
To secure a supply relationship with a facility of this scale, an Offtake Agreement (or Sale and Purchase Agreement - SPA) must align with international oil trading standards, typically governed by English Law or New York Law.
Below is a professional structural sampling of an Offtake Agreement tailored for refined products (Gasoline, Diesel, or Jet Fuel) from the Dangote Refinery as of 2026.
REFINED PRODUCT OFFTAKE AGREEMENT (SAMPLE STRUCTURE)
BETWEEN:
Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals Free Zone Enterprise (The "Seller")
AND:
[Your Company Name/Trading House] (The "Buyer")
1. Scope of Agreement
The Seller agrees to sell and deliver, and the Buyer agrees to purchase and take delivery of, [Product Name, e.g., Euro V Gasoline] (the "Product") on an [FOB/CIF/DAP] basis, subject to the terms and conditions herein.
2. Quantity and Duration
Contract Period: [e.g., 12 to 24 Months, renewable].
Total Contract Quantity: [e.g., 500,000 Metric Tons].
Monthly Lifting Schedule: [e.g., 2-3 Cargoes of 35,000 MT per month].
Tolerance: +/- 5% at Buyer’s or Seller’s option (to be specified).
3. Product Specifications
The Product shall meet the following quality standards (as per the Refinery’s laboratory Certificate of Quality):
Sulfur Content: Max 10 ppm (Euro V compliant).
Density at 15°C: [Specify range].
Flash Point: [Specify minimum].
4. Pricing and Payment Terms
Price Basis: The price per Metric Ton shall be based on the Platts Marketscan average for [e.g., "FOB Rotterdam" or "CIF West Africa"] plus/minus a negotiated differential (the "Premium").
Payment Method: Irrevocable, Transferable, Auto-Revolving Letter of Credit (SBLC/DLC) issued by a Top 25 Global Bank.
Currency: United States Dollars (USD) or Nigerian Naira (NGN) as per current Central Bank of Nigeria guidelines for domestic transactions.
5. Delivery and Risk
Point of Sale: Lekki Free Trade Zone Terminal (Lagos, Nigeria).
Title and Risk: Title to the product and risk of loss shall pass from Seller to Buyer as the product passes the vessel’s permanent hose connection at the loading port.
6. Inspection
Quantity and quality shall be determined at the loading port by a mutually agreed independent inspector (e.g., SGS, Saybolt, or Intertek). The inspector's findings shall be final and binding on both parties.
7. Compliance and Anti-Bribery
Both parties warrant compliance with the Nigerian Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and international anti-money laundering (AML) regulations.
How to Formalize This with Dangote Refinery
To move from a sample to a signed agreement in 2026, follow these steps:
Draft a Letter of Intent (LOI): Issue a formal LOI on your company letterhead addressed to the Chief Commercial Officer.
Submit KYC/CIS: Provide your "Know Your Customer" documents and "Company Profile" proving your financial capacity and vessel chartering history.
Proof of Funds (POF): Be prepared to provide a "Ready, Willing, and Able" (RWA) letter from your bank.
Official Contact: Submit these via the Dangote Refinery Official Sales Portal or directly to the sales desk at +234 707 470 2099.
Note: The refinery typically prioritizes companies that can demonstrate a long-term commitment to "lifting" (taking delivery of) large volumes consistently rather than one-off spot purchases.
