Based on market performance data for 2025, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) has provided the highest returns among the markets you listed, significantly outperforming major global exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq, and the London FTSE.
Market Performance Comparison (2025 Year-to-Date)
According to the latest financial reports and index data for December 2025:
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX): The NGX All-Share Index has emerged as one of the best-performing markets globally, recording a year-to-date (YTD) return of approximately 49.17% as of late December 2025. This growth has been driven by massive interest in sectors such as banking, consumer goods, and industrials, with some individual trillion-naira stocks gaining over 100%.
Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index): This market has performed exceptionally well in the Asian region, yielding a 30.6% YTD return as of mid-December 2025.
London (FTSE 100): The UK's primary index has seen a strong year, rising more than 20%.
Berlin/Germany (DAX): The German market, including the Xetra DAX, has posted solid gains of approximately 19% to 20% YTD.
New York (NYSE / S&P 500): The broader U.S. market has lagged behind its global peers in 2025, with the S&P 500 recording a gain of roughly 15%.
Nasdaq (U.S.): The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite has outperformed the broader U.S. market but remains behind Nigeria and Hong Kong with an estimated 19% return.
New York (Dow Jones): The Industrial Average has risen by nearly 13% this year.
Summary Table of Returns
Market / Index Estimated 2025 Return (YTD)
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) ~49.17%
Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 30.6%
London (FTSE 100) >20%
Nasdaq (U.S.) 19%
Berlin (DAX) ~19%
New York (S&P 500) 15%
New York (Dow Jones) ~13%
Key Takeaway
While global exchanges like the Nasdaq and Hang Seng have had strong years, the Nigerian market has been the standout performer for a fund with your described profile. Its nearly 50% return is attributed to local economic reforms, high corporate earnings in the banking and industrial sectors, and increased foreign portfolio inflows.
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An equity investment in the Nigerian market is projected to deliver high returns with a potential payback period of approximately 3 to 5 years, primarily driven by the strong performance of its banking and consumer goods sectors and a favorable economic outlook for 2026.
Investment Business Plan & Feasibility Study Summary
This plan outlines a strategy for the Midestrom Investment Trust Equity Fund to invest its ₦2 trillion in quoted equities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) to achieve substantial capital appreciation and dividend income.
Component Key Findings & Strategy
Market Analysis The NGX is a standout performer globally, with the All-Share Index returning nearly 50% YTD in 2025. The consumer goods (+101.8% YTD) and banking sectors (with top stocks gaining over 100%) are the primary drivers. Economic projections for 2026 forecast GDP growth of up to 4.5%, supported by macroeconomic stability, easing inflation, and a more stable Naira exchange rate.
Investment Strategy Focus on a diversified portfolio within the high-performing sectors:
Banking: Select stable, tier-1 banks like GTCO and Zenith Bank, which posted significant profits in 2024 and are well-positioned for future growth.
Consumer Goods: Target firms like Honeywell Flour Mills, Nestle, and Cadbury, which have rebounded strongly to profitability and are showing significant revenue growth.
Diversification: Maintain a mix of high-growth and dividend-paying stocks to balance capital appreciation with steady income. |
| Risk Analysis | Key risks include potential currency volatility, high inflation rates, and changes in government policies or political stability.
Mitigation: Diversify across different sectors, maintain a long-term investment horizon (5+ years) to ride out short-term volatility, and continuously monitor policy shifts. |
Proforma Financial Reports & Recoup Period
Based on historical performance and future projections, here is an estimation of the investment recovery period:
Projected Annual Return on Investment (ROI): Given the current market momentum and strong corporate earnings, an average annual return of 30% to 50% is a reasonable target in the near term, especially compared to the average annual dividend return of around 4.3% historically.
Payback Period (Time to Recoup Investment): With aggressive capital appreciation, the initial investment can likely be recouped in approximately 3 to 5 years. This rapid recovery is driven by current bullish market conditions and sector-specific catalysts like the banking sector recapitalization.
Long-term Outlook: Consistent investment over 5+ years typically shifts the focus from initial recouping to substantial wealth preservation and compounding through both capital gains and meaningful dividend payments.
Visualizing NGX Performance
This chart illustrates the significant appreciation of the NGX All-Share Index, which underpins the strong potential for investment return.
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A specific balance sheet and revenue forecast for the proprietary "Midland Cosmos Ltd's Midestrom investment trust fund" is not publicly available in the provided search results, as Midland Cosmos appears to be a hypothetical entity or a very specific private fund.
However, a generic analysis can be provided based on the financial data of a relevant public company in the Nigerian market that the fund might invest in, such as Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO), and general information on fund structures and investor payouts.
Balance Sheet Analysis (Proxy: Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc - 2025 Estimates)
A healthy balance sheet is crucial for consistent investor payouts. GTCO, a tier-1 Nigerian bank, exhibits strong financial health, which supports a positive outlook for equity investments in the Nigerian banking sector.
Metric 2024 (Actual) 2025 (Estimated) Key Insight
Total Assets N4.67 Trillion N5.28 Trillion Strong asset growth provides a robust capital base.
Cash & Equivalents N4.67 Trillion N5.28 Trillion High liquidity is good for managing fund redemptions and expenses.
Capital Adequacy 39.3% 40.1% Well above regulatory minimums, indicating resilience.
Return on Equity (ROAE) 48.6% 35.2% Exceptionally high returns indicate efficient capital use.
The fund's balance sheet would reflect similar trends in its investment securities (equities), with high asset growth driven by the strong Nigerian market performance.
Revenue Forecast (Proxy: GTCO - 2026 Estimates)
The fund's revenue will be derived from capital appreciation and dividend income from its Nigerian equity holdings.
Projected Earnings: GTCO's Profit Before Tax (PBT) is forecasted to reach N1.34 trillion in 2026.
Dividend Payouts: High profitability among banking and consumer goods stocks in Nigeria translates to strong dividend yields (historically around 4.3% on average, with some funds showing much higher returns).
Fund Revenue Streams: The Midestrom fund's revenue is expected to grow significantly, driven by the ~49.17% year-to-date return of the NGX in 2025, providing ample liquidity for distributions.
Investor Payout Structure and Return Strategy
The payout strategy must align with the legal hierarchy of investors:
Preference Shareholders: These investors have a superior claim to dividends and asset distribution upon liquidation compared to common shareholders. Their fixed dividends must be paid first from the net income generated by the fund's equity investments.
Principal Investors (Common Shareholders): After preference shareholders are fully paid, the remaining profits are available for distribution to common equity holders.
Fund Returns (Retained Earnings): A portion of the earnings is reinvested (retained) to ensure the fund's sustainability, growth, and long-term performance, thereby increasing the Net Asset Value (NAV) for all remaining shareholders.
This structure ensures an orderly and legally compliant method of returning principal and generating returns for all investor classes.
GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING COMPANY PLC
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As the "Midland Cosmos Ltd's Midestrom investment trust fund" is a hypothetical entity or a private fund, its specific pro forma financial reports are unavailable in public domain sources. The previous analysis utilized Guaranty Trust Bank (GTCO) data as a proxy to illustrate the strong market conditions the fund operates within.
Below are generic, illustrative pro forma financial statements for an equity investment trust fund with ₦2 trillion Assets Under Management (AUM), based on general accounting principles for investment funds in Nigeria and 2025 market performance data.
Pro Forma Statement of Financial Position (Balance Sheet) as at December 31, 2025 (Illustrative)
Assets Amount (Naira)
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents ₦40,000,000,000
Receivables and Other Assets ₦20,000,000,000
Non-Current Assets
Financial Assets at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (Quoted Equities) ₦2,540,000,000,000
Total Assets ₦2,600,000,000,000
Liabilities and Equity
Current Liabilities
Trade and Other Payables ₦30,000,000,000
Distributions Payable to Investors ₦70,000,000,000
Total Liabilities ₦100,000,000,000
Equity
Net Assets Attributable to Holders of Participating Units (NAV) ₦2,500,000,000,000
Total Liabilities and Equity ₦2,600,000,000,000
Note: The increase in 'Financial Assets' from the initial ₦2 trillion AUM reflects the approximate 49% market return achieved in 2025 YTD on the Nigerian Exchange.
Pro Forma Statement of Changes in Fiduciary Net Position (Revenue Forecast) for the Year Ended December 31, 2026 (Forecasted)
Revenue and Expenses Amount (Naira)
Investment Income
Dividend Income ₦80,000,000,000
Net Realized and Unrealized Gains on Investments ₦750,000,000,000
Total Investment Income ₦830,000,000,000
Expenses
Management Fees & Expenses ₦25,000,000,000
Other Operating Expenses ₦5,000,000,000
Total Expenses ₦30,000,000,000
Net Increase from Investment Operations ₦800,000,000,000
Distributions to Investors
Distributions from Net Investment Income/Gains ₦150,000,000,000
Net Assets Attributable to Unit Holders, End of Year ₦3,150,000,000,000
Note: The revenue forecast assumes a slightly more conservative average annual return of 30% for 2026, building on the strong 2025 performance.
Payout and Recoupment Strategy
The projected figures illustrate a healthy capacity to meet investor obligations:
Preference Shareholders: These investors receive their fixed dividends first from the 'Net Increase from Investment Operations'.
Principal Investors (Common Shareholders): The remaining significant gains are available for distribution to common shareholders and for reinvestment to grow the fund's NAV.
Recoup Period: The initial investment can likely be recouped in approximately 3 to 5 years, due to the high projected annual returns and a bullish market outlook for the exchange.
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2025 Interim Financial Statements
MD Financial Management
An investment in the Nigerian market is projected to deliver high returns with a potential payback period of approximately 3 to 5 years, primarily driven by the strong performance of its banking and consumer goods sectors and a favorable economic outlook for 2026.
Pro Forma Statement of Financial Position (Balance Sheet) as at December 31, 2025 (Illustrative)
Note: The increase in 'Financial Assets' from the initial ₦2 trillion AUM reflects the approximate 49% market return achieved in 2025 YTD on the Nigerian Exchange.
Pro Forma Statement of Changes in Fiduciary Net Position (Revenue Forecast) for the Year Ended December 31, 2026 (Forecasted)
Revenue and Expenses Amount (Naira)
Investment Income
Dividend Income ₦80,000,000,000
Net Realized and Unrealized Gains on Investments ₦750,000,000,000
Total Investment Income ₦830,000,000,000
Expenses
Management Fees & Expenses ₦25,000,000,000
Other Operating Expenses ₦5,000,000,000
Total Expenses ₦30,000,000,000
Net Increase from Investment Operations ₦800,000,000,000
Distributions to Investors
Distributions from Net Investment Income/Gains ₦150,000,000,000
Net Assets Attributable to Unit Holders, End of Year ₦3,150,000,000,000
Note: The revenue forecast assumes a slightly more conservative average annual return of 30% for 2026, building on the strong 2025 performance and expected GDP growth of up to 4.5% in 2026.
Payout and Recoupment Strategy
The projected figures illustrate a healthy capacity to meet investor obligations:
Preference Shareholders: These investors have priority claim to dividends and asset distribution. Their fixed dividends must be paid first from the 'Net Increase from Investment Operations'.
Principal Investors (Common Shareholders): After preference shareholders are fully paid, the remaining significant profits and gains are available for distribution to common shareholders and for reinvestment to grow the fund's NAV.
Recoup Period: The initial investment of ₦2 trillion can likely be recouped in approximately 3 to 5 years, due to the high projected annual returns and a bullish market outlook for the NGX. This is significantly faster than the historical average return period, thanks to the recent market boom.
2026-2027 Economic Outlook & Investment Environment
The positive outlook is underpinned by several key factors:
Macroeconomic Stability: Exchange rate stability and moderating inflation are expected to support stronger business confidence and investment planning.
Sector Performance: The banking sector is undergoing recapitalization, which is expected to position banks for significant growth and stronger lending in 2026. The consumer goods sector is also expected to sustain momentum due to anticipated further disinflation and local sourcing of inputs.
Global Context: While global growth is projected to weaken in 2026 due to trade tensions, Nigeria's domestic growth potential provides a robust frontier for returns.
Risks: Investors should be aware of risks from potential currency volatility, high inflation rates, and the increase in capital gains tax from 10% to 30% starting January 2026, which may affect post-tax returns.
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Taking a cursory look at the forecast below:
Assets Amount (Naira)
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents ₦40,000,000,000
Receivables and Other Assets ₦20,000,000,000
Non-Current Assets
Financial Assets at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (Quoted Equities) ₦2,540,000,000,000
Total Assets ₦2,600,000,000,000
Liabilities and Equity
Current Liabilities
Trade and Other Payables ₦30,000,000,000
Distributions Payable to Investors ₦70,000,000,000
Total Liabilities ₦100,000,000,000
Equity
Net Assets Attributable to Holders of Participating Units (NAV) ₦2,500,000,000,000
Total Liabilities and Equity ₦2,600,000,000,000
A consistent 75% annual return is an aggressive and high-risk forecast, though the Nigerian market has demonstrated exceptional performance recently, with individual stocks like MTN Nigeria delivering a 152% gain year-to-date (YTD) in 2025 and the broader consumer goods index achieving a 115% YTD gain.
While the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (NGX ASI) has hit a remarkable 49.17% YTD return in 2025, forecasting a consistent 75% requires a highly focused, high-risk strategy leveraging specific sector momentum.
75% Return Forecast Plan & Feasibility Study Summary
This plan outlines a strategy for achieving an ambitious 75% annual return for the ₦2 trillion Midestrom Fund, focusing on high-growth equities like MTN and top-performing consumer goods/banking stocks.
Component Key Strategy & Feasibility
Investment Focus Target stocks with demonstrated explosive growth, such as MTN Nigeria (152% YTD gain in 2025), and top consumer goods companies (e.g., Honeywell Flour Mills, Nestle) that have rallied over 100%.
Market Justification The Nigerian market is in a sustained bullish phase, driven by economic reforms and high corporate earnings, offering opportunities for significant capital appreciation.
Risk Profile This plan carries high risk. Returns in risky assets are not guaranteed. Key risks include currency volatility, regulatory changes, and a potential market correction. A 20% weakening of the Naira could significantly impact profit.
Success Factors Success depends on sustained positive macroeconomic conditions, continued strong corporate earnings, and adept stock picking to capture maximum upside potential.
Pro Forma Financial Reports (Illustrative 75% Annual Return Scenario)
These pro forma statements project the potential outcome of a ₦2 trillion fund achieving a 75% annual return for the year ending December 31, 2026. These figures rely heavily on the assumption that the exceptional 2025 performance can be maintained or exceeded.
Pro Forma Statement of Financial Position (Balance Sheet) as at December 31, 2026 (Illustrative)
Assets Amount (Naira)
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents ₦50,000,000,000
Receivables ₦30,000,000,000
Non-Current Assets
Financial Assets at Fair Value (Quoted Equities) ₦3,520,000,000,000
Total Assets ₦3,600,000,000,000
Liabilities and Equity
Current Liabilities
Trade and Other Payables ₦40,000,000,000
Distributions Payable to Investors ₦60,000,000,000
Total Liabilities ₦100,000,000,000
Equity
Net Assets Attributable to Unit Holders (NAV) ₦3,500,000,000,000
Total Liabilities and Equity ₦3,600,000,000,000
Pro Forma
Pro Forma Statement of Changes in Fiduciary Net Position (Revenue Forecast) for the Year Ended December 31, 2026 (Forecasted)
Revenue and Expenses Amount (Naira)
Investment Income
Dividend Income ₦100,000,000,000
Net Realized and Unrealized Gains on Investments ₦1,400,000,000,000
Total Investment Income ₦1,500,000,000,000
Expenses
Management Fees & Expenses ₦35,000,000,000
Other Operating Expenses ₦5,000,000,000
Total Expenses ₦40,000,000,000
Net Increase from Investment Operations ₦1,460,000,000,000
Distributions to Investors
Distributions from Net Investment Income/Gains ₦300,000,000,000
Net Assets Attributable to Unit Holders, End of Year ₦4,660,000,000,000
Recoupment Timeline with a 75% Return
With a highly optimistic and consistently achieved annual return of 75% on the initial ₦2 trillion investment:
Year 1 End (2026): Investment value grows to ₦3.5 trillion (after expenses/initial payouts).
Year 2 Mid (2027): The initial ₦2 trillion investment could be fully recouped in just under 2 years through a combination of capital appreciation and distributions, provided this exceptional return rate is sustained.
This highly accelerated recoupment schedule highlights the potential of the Nigerian market, but it is important to remember that past returns are not predictive of future performance, and such high forecasts involve substantial risk.
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