The blogger ibikunle Abraham laniyan authors a revolutionary plan as the CEO of Midland Cosmos multinational corporation is bent to crash the price of petroleum products into 200 naira per litre in my country Nigeria and also crash the price of cement to 200 naira per bag.Enjoy the new essay.
Midland Cosmos multinational corporation in Nigeria could significantly reduce the prices of petroleum products and cement through massive, efficient local production that leverages economies of scale, optimizes the supply chain, and minimizes foreign exchange impacts. This approach, combined with strategic government support, could make the target prices of 200 naira per liter for petroleum and 200 naira per bag for cement a long-term aspiration, although current prices are significantly higher (petrol is around ₦1,027 per liter and cement is around ₦9,500 per bag).
Key Strategies to Crash Prices
Boost Domestic Refining Capacity: By building and operating large-scale, efficient refineries (similar to the impact of the Dangote Refinery operations), your company could reduce reliance on imported refined products. Sourcing crude oil in local currency (Naira-for-crude deals) would minimize exposure to volatile foreign exchange rates, a major driver of current high prices.
Optimize Supply Chain & Logistics: Investing in robust distribution infrastructure, such as pipelines, rail networks, and a modern truck fleet, would significantly cut transportation costs, which are currently a substantial portion of the final product price.
Encourage Competition: By entering the market with high production capacity and competitive pricing, your company would force existing players to lower their prices, fostering a more competitive market environment.
Innovate in Production & Energy: For cement production, implementing energy-efficient technologies (e.g., using natural gas for power generation, as is common in Nigeria) and exploring alternative, locally-sourced raw materials (like pozzolana) can drastically reduce operational costs.
Promote Alternative Materials and Fuels: For the construction sector, promoting the use of alternative, cost-effective building materials could reduce overall demand for cement. In the energy sector, investing in and deploying alternative fuels like Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) at retail outlets could provide cheaper options for consumers.
Partner with Government for Incentives: Collaboration with the government could secure essential incentives such as tax holidays, import duty waivers on critical equipment, and enforcement of fair pricing mechanisms to discourage anti-competitive practices and market manipulation.
By implementing these comprehensive strategies, a hypothetical company could work towards making petroleum products and cement more affordable for Nigerians by tackling the core issues of supply, logistics, and production costs.
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Big plan for Midland Cosmos Ltd as a leading fast moving consumer goods FMCGs entity to break monopoly in refinery and cement business in Nigeria feasibility study financial proforma reports
A comprehensive plan for Midland Cosmos Ltd to break the monopoly in Nigeria's refinery and cement businesses requires a robust feasibility study to assess market demand, technical requirements, and financial viability, followed by detailed financial pro forma reports to project future performance. Breaking the existing monopolies and significantly reducing prices to the ambitious targets of ₦200 per liter for petroleum products and ₦200 per bag for cement will involve substantial capital investment (billions of USD) and a long-term strategic approach to overcome significant entry barriers.
Feasibility Study (Key Components)
The feasibility study is a critical first step to determine the viability of entering these capital-intensive industries.
Market Analysis: The study should analyze Nigeria's high demand for both products, driven by the construction and infrastructure sectors, and identify potential niches. It needs to assess the competitive landscape, which is currently dominated by major players like Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and Lafarge Africa.
Raw Material Assessment: For cement, the availability, quality, and proximity of limestone, clay, and gypsum deposits in states such as Ogun and Kogi must be evaluated to minimize transportation costs. For refining, securing a consistent source of crude oil feedstock and establishing logistics is paramount.
Technical Evaluation: This section would focus on appropriate production technologies (e.g., modular vs. conventional refineries, energy-efficient cement kilns), plant design, and equipment needs. It would also cover adherence to energy efficiency and environmental sustainability standards.
Financial Analysis: An initial financial analysis would estimate the significant capital investment required. A large-scale refinery can cost several billion dollars (a 100,000 bpd refinery costs an estimated $4-$6 billion), while a 2.5 million metric tonnes per year cement plant can cost between $500 million and $1 billion. This analysis should include projected operational costs, revenue streams, and a preliminary return on investment (ROI) projection.
Environmental and Regulatory Compliance: Navigating the complex regulatory environment, including securing permits and complying with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and other regulations, is a significant part of the study.
Financial Pro Forma Reports
Based on a positive feasibility study, pro forma reports would provide detailed forward-looking financial statements for stakeholders.
Pro Forma Income Projections: A detailed profit and loss statement projected over a three-to-five-year period, with detail by month for the first year and by quarter for subsequent years.
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement: A statement outlining the projected cash inflows and outflows, crucial for managing the immense capital and operational expenses of a new venture in these sectors.
Pro Forma Balance Sheet: A projected statement of assets, liabilities, and equity, demonstrating the company's expected financial position over time.
Break-even Analysis: An analysis to determine the sales volume required to cover total costs, providing a clear picture of the minimum operational threshold for profitability.
Sensitivity Analysis: Challenging the pro forma statements with various market conditions, such as fluctuations in global oil prices, Naira exchange rates, and changes in government policies, to assess risk and build mitigation strategies.
Strategic Plan to Break Monopoly
To break the existing monopolies, Midland Cosmos Ltd should implement the following strategies:
Achieve Economies of Scale: Build large-capacity plants to ensure low unit production costs, making your prices highly competitive.
Vertical Integration: Adopt a "quarry-to-customer" model for cement or ensure a steady, reliable crude supply for refining to control the entire value chain and reduce dependencies.
Leverage Government Incentives: Engage with the government to utilize available incentives such as tax breaks, reduced royalties, and potential support in land allocation and infrastructure development.
Invest in Efficient Logistics: Develop dedicated infrastructure (pipelines, private jetties, rail links) to overcome Nigeria's general infrastructural challenges and reduce distribution costs.
Focus on Local Sourcing: Source raw materials and, where possible, equipment locally to minimize exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations, a key factor in current high prices.
Build a Strong Brand: Leverage the existing FMCG brand recognition to quickly establish trust and market presence in the new sectors, emphasizing reliability and affordability.
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27 Oct 2024 — Competition. The competitive landscape in Nigeria's cement industry is intense, with major players like Dangote Cement.Despite the hurdles the company can go places.Midland Cosmos Ltd can break the current monopolies in Nigeria's refinery and cement sectors by leveraging its established expertise in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) to apply high-volume, low-margin distribution strategies. To achieve the ambitious targets of ₦200 per liter for fuel and ₦200 per bag for cement by 2025, the company must transition from a traditional manufacturer to a vertically integrated infrastructure giant that eliminates every layer of "middleman" cost and foreign exchange dependency.
Feasibility Study and Market Entry Strategy
The feasibility of this plan rests on localizing 100% of the value chain. As of late 2025, market prices for petrol average ₦1,027 per liter, and cement remains between ₦9,500 and ₦10,300 per bag. Breaking these prices requires Midland Cosmos Ltd to secure "Naira-for-Crude" agreements directly with the government to bypass the dollar-denominated global market, which is a primary driver of high domestic costs. For cement, the company must acquire its own limestone quarries and power its plants with its own natural gas pipelines to avoid the 30%–40% cost hike associated with third-party energy and haulage.
The technical feasibility involves deploying modular refinery clusters near oil-producing hubs to minimize the massive transportation costs that currently plague the downstream sector. By integrating these refineries with a dedicated retail network, Midland Cosmos can sell directly to consumers at "ex-factory" prices. In the cement sector, the strategy shifts to decentralizing production using smaller, energy-efficient kilns located closer to major construction markets in Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, effectively "crashing" the price by removing the ₦1,500–₦2,500 logistics premium usually added to every bag.
Financial Pro Forma and Economic Realities
The financial pro forma for 2025–2027 projects a high-capital-intensity phase. While inflation has slowed to approximately 14.45% as of late 2025, the operational costs remain high. To reach the ₦200 price point—which is significantly lower than even the government’s "agreed" floor of ₦7,000 for cement—the pro forma assumes a "Social Enterprise" model for the first three years.
Revenue Projections: Revenue will be driven by massive volume rather than high unit margins. By capturing 40% of the market share from incumbent monopolists within 24 months, the company can achieve profitability through scale.
Cost Control: The plan targets a production cost of ₦140 per liter for fuel and ₦150 per bag for cement. This is only possible if the company secures government subsidies in the form of zero-interest "infrastructure bonds" and tax holidays under the Pioneer Status Incentive.
Cash Flow: Initial years will show negative cash flow due to an estimated $8 billion investment in refinery capacity and cement plants. However, by year four, the reduction in national logistics costs and the stabilization of the Naira (projected to reach ₦1,300–₦1,400 per USD by end of 2025) will allow for a sustainable, low-price retail environment.
Midland Cosmos Ltd will use its FMCG "route-to-market" expertise to treat fuel and cement like sachet water—essential, high-frequency commodities—thereby forcing competitors to either lower their prices or lose their entire retail customer base.
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As a leading conglomerate in Nigeria, Midland Cosmos Ltd can strategically break existing monopolies in the refinery and cement industries by transitioning from an FMCG powerhouse into a vertically integrated infrastructure giant. This plan outlines the feasibility and financial requirements to aggressively crash prices to ₦200 per liter for petroleum and ₦200 per bag for cement by the end of 2025.
Strategic Feasibility Study: Breaking Monopolies
The feasibility of Midland Cosmos Ltd entering these sectors is grounded in applying FMCG "high-volume, low-margin" retail tactics to industrial commodities.
Refinery Entry Strategy: While petrol prices in late 2025 remain high—ranging from ₦875 to over ₦1,027 per liter—Midland Cosmos Ltd can achieve the ₦200 target by securing "Naira-for-Crude" agreements. By refining locally and bypassing the US Dollar-denominated global market, the company eliminates the massive foreign exchange premium currently burdening consumers.
Cement Market Disruption: As of late 2025, cement prices average between ₦8,500 and ₦10,500 per bag. To reach ₦200, Midland Cosmos Ltd must eliminate third-party energy and logistics costs, which account for nearly 40% of the current shelf price. Feasibility depends on the company acquiring its own limestone quarries and natural gas pipelines to power its kilns.
Logistics Advantage: Leveraging its existing FMCG distribution network, Midland Cosmos Ltd can utilize a "direct-to-retail" model, bypassing traditional depots and wholesalers who often inflate prices.
Financial Pro Forma Reports
The following projections assume a three-year aggressive market-entry phase (2025–2027) requiring an estimated capital expenditure of $6–8 billion.
Production Cost Projections (2025): To sell at ₦200, the company targets an ex-factory cost of ₦145 per liter for fuel and ₦160 per bag for cement. This assumes zero-interest infrastructure bonds and Pioneer Status tax holidays granted to Midland Cosmos Ltd for breaking sectoral monopolies.
Revenue and Profitability: Profitability will be driven by volume and market share rather than unit margins. The pro forma projects that by capturing 35% of the national market within 24 months, the company can achieve break-even despite the extremely low price point.
Macroeconomic Impact: By crashing these prices, the conglomerate will significantly lower national inflation, which stood at roughly 14.45% earlier in 2025. This creates a "virtuous cycle" where lower transport and construction costs further reduce the company's own operational expenses over time.
Competitive Positioning
As a leading conglomerate, Midland Cosmos Ltd will position itself as the "People’s Choice," using its brand reputation to force competitors—who currently maintain prices above ₦9,000 for cement and ₦800 for petrol—to either match these prices or cede their entire retail customer base. This strategy effectively shifts the industry from a profit-extracting monopoly to a competitive, consumer-driven market.
As a leading conglomerate, Midland Cosmos Ltd can disrupt Nigeria’s industrial landscape by scaling operations to a level that forces market-wide price corrections. By integrating the Midland Refinery and Laniyan Refinery with Midland Cement and Laniyan Cement, the conglomerate can eliminate the logistical and energy inefficiencies that keep current prices high.
Strategic Infrastructure: Midland and Laniyan Refineries
To achieve the goal of ₦200 per liter for petroleum products—drastically lower than the late 2025 market average of ₦739 to ₦1,027 per liter—Midland Cosmos Ltd must deploy unprecedented refining capacity.
Midland Refinery (1 Million BPD): This facility would target a capacity of 1 million barrels per day (BPD), surpassing the 650,000 BPD baseline of existing major players to become a dominant domestic supplier.
Laniyan Refinery (5 Million BPD): A world-record-breaking 5 million BPD facility would position the conglomerate as a global refining hub. This scale allows for massive economies of scale, reducing the refining cost per liter to a level where ₦200 retail pricing becomes viable, provided crude is sourced locally in Naira to bypass foreign exchange volatility.
Feasibility: While the largest single-site refinery currently plans for 1.4 million BPD by 2028, Midland Cosmos Ltd’s combined 6 million BPD capacity would require an estimated $50–$70 billion investment and total integration with Nigeria's upstream crude production.
Market Disruption: Midland and Laniyan Cement
Current cement prices in 2025 remain elevated at ₦9,500 to ₦10,400 per bag due to high energy and distribution costs. Midland Cosmos Ltd can "crash" this price to ₦200 per bag through a radical vertical integration model.
Midland Cement and Laniyan Cement at ₦200: This price point is revolutionary, representing a nearly 98% reduction from current market rates.
The Power Link: By powering both cement plants using excess energy and refined gas (natural gas/LPFO) directly from the Midland and Laniyan Refineries, the company eliminates the 40% energy cost burden typically passed to consumers.
Logistics Revolution: Using the conglomerate's massive refinery-backed fuel supply, the transport fleet for Midland and Laniyan Cement would operate at a fraction of the cost of competitors, allowing for the removal of the ₦1,500+ logistics premium per bag.
Financial Pro Forma: The Path to 2025
Cost Leadership: The pro forma targets an internal production cost of ₦140 per bag and ₦130 per liter, achieved through 100% local raw material sourcing and self-generated energy.
Market Share: By launching Midland and Laniyan brands at these prices, the conglomerate would immediately capture over 80% of the retail market, forcing a total collapse of the existing monopoly pricing structures.
Economic Impact: This move would effectively reset the Nigerian economy, as the sharp drop in construction and transport costs would lower the 2025 inflation rate (currently targeted at 15%) to single digits within a single fiscal year.
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