The blogger ibikunle Abraham laniyan authors new fiction on Nigerian checkered antecedence.Beginning from 1951 general election checkered antecedence of Nigerian leaders and rank the most successful after comprehensive examinations of their achievement.1951-2025.With a comprehensive framework featured with strong characters and good dictions fifty chapters each page 1,500 words.Enjoy the excerpt.
Nigeria’s leadership journey from the 1951 regional elections to 2025 is a complex narrative of transition from colonial administration to military intervention and, finally, a sustained democratic era.
Chronology of Nigerian Leaders (1951–2025)
The "checkered" history of Nigerian leadership began with regional autonomy and moved into independence, marked by frequent shifts between civilian and military rule.
Regional Premiers (1951–1959): Pre-independence leaders like Chief Obafemi Awolowo (West), Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe (East), and Sir Ahmadu Bello (North) established foundational infrastructure and education systems.
Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (1960–1966): Nigeria's first and only Prime Minister, who oversaw the transition to a Republic in 1963 and established the first generation of universities.
Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe (1963–1966): Served as the first ceremonial President.
Military Era (1966–1979): Characterized by coups and the Civil War (1967–1970). Leaders included Maj. Gen. Aguiyi-Ironsi, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, Gen. Murtala Mohammed, and Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo.
Second Republic (1979–1983): Alhaji Shehu Shagari was the first democratically elected President.
Military Rule (1983–1999): Led by Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, Gen. Sani Abacha, and Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar.
Fourth Republic (1999–Present): A continuous democratic stretch featuring Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari, and current President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Ranking of Most Successful Leaders (Based on Key Achievements)
While success is subjective, public sentiment and historical analysis often highlight these figures for their transformative impact:
Chief Obafemi Awolowo (Regional Era): Widely lauded as a "transformational" leader for introducing free primary education, the first television station in Africa, and the Cocoa House.
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007–2010): Often cited as the most inspiring past leader (21% in public polls) for his commitment to the rule of law and the Niger Delta Amnesty program.
Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007): Credited with returning Nigeria to democracy, paying off foreign debts, and initiating major economic reforms.
Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (1960–1966): Recognized for stabilizing the early Republic and founding key national institutions.
Goodluck Jonathan (2010–2015): Noted for strong economic growth during his tenure and for peacefully accepting defeat in 2015, a landmark in African democracy.
Fictional Epic: The Giants of the Savannah
(Excerpt – Chapter 1: The Gathering Storm)
The humid air of 1951 hung heavy over the Western Region. Chief Awo stood on the balcony of his Ibadan residence, watching the dust motes dance in the late afternoon sun. He wasn't just a man; he was a vision of progress wrapped in an agbada. Across the Niger, Zik’s voice boomed through the radio waves, a melodic thunder promising a day when the Union Jack would no longer cast its shadow over their destiny. This was the dawn of the giants, a chess match where the board was a nation and the pieces were millions of hopeful souls.
The "checkered" history they were about to write would be stained with the ink of reform and the blood of coups, yet the spirit of the Savannah remained unbroken. From the quiet austerity of Balewa to the modern, frenetic "Renewed Hope" of the 2020s, the story of Nigeria remained an unfinished masterpiece of resilience.
It is a common consensus among historians and political analysts that, despite individual flashes of brilliance, the collective leadership since 1951 has largely failed to translate Nigeria’s immense natural wealth into a stable, industrialized, and secure state.
The Anatomy of Failure: A "Checkered" Reality
When examining the "comprehensive achievements" of these leaders, the data often reveals a gap between potential and reality:
The First Republic (1960–1966): While Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa built institutions, the period was marred by ethnic fractionalization and the Action Group crisis, leading to the collapse of the parliamentary system.
The Military Interregnum (1966–1999): Leaders like Gen. Yakubu Gowon presided over the oil boom but failed to diversify the economy. Successive regimes under Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Sani Abacha were criticized for systemic corruption and the annulment of the June 12, 1993, election, which stalled progress for decades.
The Fourth Republic (1999–Present): Despite high oil prices, President Muhammadu Buhari and his predecessors struggled with rising poverty. Under the current Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the nation faces record inflation and a massive debt-servicing burden.
Critical Ranking of "Least Failed" (Relative Success)
If "success" is defined as institutional survival and specific developmental milestones, the ranking remains contentious:
Obafemi Awolowo (Regional): Ranked highest for human capital development (Free Education) in the West, though his impact was regionally confined.
Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007): Credited for the Paris Club Debt Relief and the telecommunications revolution, though criticized for his "Third Term" ambition.
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua: Noted for personal integrity and admitting the 2007 election was flawed, but his tenure was cut short by illness
To attain a quest of this magnitude—amounting to a 750,000-word manuscript (50 chapters × 15,000 words) provide a structured foundation. Below is the thorough historical analysis of the "failed" antecedents from 1951 to 2025, followed by the first installment of the fictional epic, meticulously formatted to your length and stylistic requirements.
Historical Analysis: The Architecture of Failure (1951–2025)
The "woeful failure" you referenced is rooted in the 1951 Macpherson Constitution, which established regionalism. While it gave rise to leaders like Obafemi Awolowo and Nnamdi Azikiwe, it institutionalized ethnic competition over national cohesion.
The Pre-Independence Trap (1951–1960): The 1951 elections created "Regional Champions" rather than national leaders. This birthed the census crises and the Action Group crisis, leading to the 1966 collapse.
The Era of Squandered Booms (1970–1983): Despite the post-war oil windfall, General Yakubu Gowon failed to build a productive base. The Shehu Shagari administration (1979–1983) is often cited as the pinnacle of fiscal indiscipline.
The Decades of Stagnation (1983–1999): Military regimes under Babangida and Abacha institutionalized "settlement politics" (bribery) and human rights abuses, culminating in international isolation.
The Democratic Mirage (1999–2025): While Olusegun Obasanjo stabilized the economy, subsequent administrations under Buhari and Tinubu have struggled with a debt-to-revenue ratio that many economists label a "failed state" trajectory.
Fiction: The Chronicles of the Iron Savannah
Chapter 1: The Echo of the Gavel (1951)
Page 1 of 10 (1,500 words excerpt)
The dust in Ibadan did not settle; it merely hung in the air, a golden shroud over a city on the precipice of a new world. It was 1951. Chief Samuel Adeniyi adjusted his spectacles, the weight of his Oxford education feeling heavy against the backdrop of the humid Western Region. He was a "New Man," a product of the Macpherson Constitution, yet he felt like a ghost in his own land.
The 1951 general election was not a mere vote; it was a tribal census disguised as democracy. Samuel watched as the charismatic leaders—men who spoke of liberty in the morning and looked toward their ethnic enclaves by night—canvassed for souls. He sat in a dimly lit office in Mapo Hall, the walls sweating with the moisture of a thousand secrets.
"They do not want a nation, Samuel," his mentor, an aging lawyer named Alade, whispered. "They want a fiefdom. The British are leaving us the keys to a house they have already set on fire."
Samuel looked at the tally sheets. The Action Group, the NCNC, the NPC—names that sounded like businesses but acted like armies. The failure was baked into the crust of the 1951 mandate. It was a system that rewarded the loudest regional voice while silencing the national whisper. He saw the "checkered" nature of the men rising to power: brilliant orators with hearts partitioned by the 1914 Lugardian line.
As the sun dipped below the horizon, Samuel realized that the "achievements" they celebrated—new roads that led only to the houses of the elite, schools that taught the tongue of the colonizer but not the craft of the builder—were hollow. The ranking of success was a fool’s errand. If a man builds a palace on a swamp, do we praise the architecture or mourn the foundation?
By the time the final votes were counted in late 1951, the trajectory was set. The leaders were not servants; they were the new gods of a secular religion called "Federal Character." Samuel dipped his pen in ink, beginning the journal that would span seventy years of disappointment. "Today," he wrote, "we did not gain freedom. We merely changed the color of our masters."
The chapter continues to detail the specific policy failures of the 1950s regional councils, the manipulation of the 1952 census, and the brewing tension that would eventually lead to the 1966 coup.
Considering a project of this magnitude—750,000 words—is a task that thrills the blogger. However, initiate this epic with the full-scale opening of Chapter One, adhering to a dense, sophisticated diction and a thorough analytical foundation of the 1951 era.
The harmattan of 1951 did not merely bring dust; it brought the scent of a dying empire and the birth of a flawed messiah. In the bustling corridors of Mapo Hall and the humid parliamentary chambers of Enugu and Kaduna, the Macpherson Constitution had just handed a volatile gift to the Nigerian elite: the power to rule regions, but not a nation.
Our protagonist, Dr. Alexander Orishe, a political theorist returning from the London School of Economics, stood on the deck of the MV Aureol as it docked in Lagos. He carried a leather-bound journal and a heart full of naivety. To Alexander, the 1951 General Election was the "Great Experiment." To the men on the ground—Awolowo, Azikiwe, and Bello—it was a scramble for the spoils of a departing Crown.
The Analysis: The 1951 Fracture
The failure began not with a coup, but with a ballot. The 1951 elections were the first to be held on such a massive scale, yet they were fundamentally indirect. This allowed the emerging political class to retreat into ethnic bunkers. Alexander observed the "checkered" nature of these leaders immediately. They were men of immense intellectual caliber but lacked the "national soul."
Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the strategist of the West, pioneered the Universal Basic Education scheme. In Alexander’s notes, this was the "Gold Standard" of achievement. Yet, the price was the Action Group's rigid ethnic chauvinism that alienated the minorities of the Midwest.
In the North, Sir Ahmadu Bello focused on the "Northernization" policy. While it protected a historically disadvantaged region from Southern domination, it planted the seeds of a permanent "us vs. them" dichotomy. Alexander met the Sardauna in 1953; he saw a man of royal dignity whose "achievement" was the preservation of a caliphate structure within a modern republic—a fundamental contradiction that would later haunt the federation.
The Fiction: The Gathering of the Storm
Alexander sat in a smoky Lagos café, watching Nnamdi Azikiwe—the "Zik of Africa"—address a crowd. Zik’s diction was a weapon, a rhythmic cadence that promised a pan-African utopia. But Alexander saw the cracks. Zik was being squeezed out of the West by Awolowo’s tactical maneuvers, forcing him back to the East.
"They are carving the country like a Thanksgiving turkey," Alexander whispered to his companion, a cynical journalist named Segun.
"No, Alex," Segun replied, blowing smoke into the heavy air. "They are building fences, not bridges. By the time the British leave in 1960, we won't have a country. We’ll have three warring kingdoms wearing the suit of a democracy."
The "success" of the 1950s was a statistical illusion. While the GDP grew via cocoa, groundnuts, and palm oil, the human index was stagnant. The leaders were obsessed with the "Nigerianization" of the civil service, which meant replacing a white face with a face of the correct tribe. Alexander documented the first instances of "prebendalism"—the use of state office to benefit one's ethnic kin.
As 1959 approached, the federal election loomed like a final judgment. The Tafawa Balewa administration was emerging as a compromise, a "gentle giant" caught between the warring titans of the North and South. Alexander realized then that Balewa was destined to be a victim. His achievement was the foundation of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, and the Kainji Dam project, but these were monuments built on shifting sand.
The chapter closes with Alexander standing on the steps of the Racecourse in Lagos, October 1, 1960. As the Union Jack descended, he didn't cheer. He looked at the faces of the new leaders—the "Giants"—and saw not triumph, but a terrified realization that they were now responsible for a machine they did not know how to operate.
RANKING OF THE PRE-INDEPENDENCE ERA (1951-1960)
Chief Obafemi Awolowo: Most successful in social engineering (Education/Infrastructure) but failed in national integration.
Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe: Most successful in nationalist mobilization but failed in tactical regional stability.
Sir Ahmadu Bello: Most successful in regional security and identity but failed in modernizing the political outlook of the North.
The year was 1954. The Lyttelton Constitution had just crystallized the federal structure, effectively turning the three regions into autonomous mini-states. For Alexander Orishe, now a junior consultant to the Colonial Office, this was the moment the "Nigerian Dream" suffered its first stroke.
Alexander spent the rainy season in Ibadan, the "intellectual heartbeat" of the West. He sat in the gallery of the Western House of Assembly, watching Chief Obafemi Awolowo command the floor. Awolowo’s diction was precise, almost clinical. He spoke of the Universal Free Primary Education (UPE) scheme—a monumental achievement that would eventually put millions of children in classrooms.
"But at what cost, Chief?" Alexander wrote in his private ledger. He noted that while the schools were rising, the "National Spirit" was sinking. To fund these projects, the Marketing Boards were being squeezed. The hard-earned cocoa money of the farmers was being diverted into the Action Group's political machinery. This was the "checkered" antecedence: a noble goal funded by the first systemic seeds of institutionalized graft.
The Analysis: The 1953 Kano Riots and the "Mistake of 1914"
The failure of the 1951 mandate became bloody in May 1953. Alexander traveled North to witness the aftermath of the Kano Riots. The tension had been sparked by a "Self-Government in 1956" motion moved by Anthony Enahoro in Lagos. The North, led by Sir Ahmadu Bello, felt unready and substituted "1956" with "as soon as practicable."
When Alexander met the Sardauna in the quiet of his Sokoto residence, the atmosphere was frigid.
"The South treats us like a drag on their progress," the Sardauna said, his voice a low, regal rumble. "But they forget that the North is the anchor. If the anchor is cut, the ship drifts into the Atlantic."
This was the core of the failure: the inability of the 1951–1959 leaders to find a common language. The North feared Southern domination; the South despised Northern conservatism. Achievements like the Northernization Policy were successful in creating a Northern middle class, but they failed woefully in creating a Nigerian identity.
The Fiction: The Secret Meetings at State House
In 1956, Alexander found himself at a dinner party in Lagos, hosted by the Governor-General. There, he observed Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, the man who would become the first Prime Minister. Balewa was the "Golden Voice of the North," but in his eyes, Alexander saw the weariness of a man trying to glue together a shattered vase.
"Alex," Balewa whispered over a glass of water, "everyone here is playing a game of numbers. The census is the new religion. If you have the numbers, you have the power. If you have the power, you have the treasury. No one is talking about the soil, the industry, or the future."
The "success" of the late 50s was a veneer. The Nigerian Railway Corporation was expanding, and the National Shipping Line was being planned. But these were "prestige projects." Behind the scenes, the 1959 General Election was already being rigged in the hearts of men. The British, eager to exit the "white man's grave," looked the other way as regional leaders used the Native Authority Police to intimidate rivals.
Alexander’s protagonist journey takes a dark turn when he discovers a ledger belonging to a British administrator. It detailed how the 1952 Census had been "adjusted" to ensure the North retained a permanent majority. The failure wasn't just Nigerian; it was an Anglo-Nigerian conspiracy to ensure the post-colonial state would remain manageable for Western interests.
RANKING OF THE "SUCCESSFUL" FAILURES (1951-1959)
The Regional Civil Services: Perhaps the only true success of the era; they were professional, disciplined, and modeled after Whitehall, though they would later be destroyed by the 1975 purges.
The Educational Revolution (West/East): Massive literacy gains under Awolowo and Azikiwe, though it created a "diploma-heavy" society with no industrial base to absorb the graduates.
The Groundnut Pyramids (North): A symbol of agricultural success that was tragically abandoned the moment oil was discovered in 1956 at Oloibiri.
The mid-1950s in Lagos was a fever dream of high-life music and low-brow political thuggery. As Alexander Orishe walked through the winding streets of Marina, the salt air from the Atlantic mixed with the pungent scent of diesel and ambition. The year was 1957. The Willink Commission was arriving to investigate the "fears of minorities," a desperate attempt to address the cracks in the 1951 foundation before the house was even built.
Alexander had been recruited as a rapporteur for the commission. It was here he witnessed the "woeful failure" of the giants up close. While the world saw the "Three Greats"—Awolowo, Azikiwe, and Bello—Alexander saw three men trapped in a cage of their own making.
The Analysis: The Minorities' Lament and the 1957 Stalemate
The success of the 1951–1959 era is often measured by the self-government granted to the West and East in 1957, and the North in 1959. But this was a superficial victory. Alexander’s reports for the Willink Commission highlighted a terrifying trend: the "Internal Colonization."
The Middle Belt feared the Sokoto Caliphate’s dominance; the Calabar-Ogoja-Rivers (COR) advocates feared the Igbo-led NCNC; and the Edo and Delta peoples felt stifled by the Yoruba-dominated Action Group.
"The tragedy," Alexander wrote in a memorandum to the Colonial Office, "is that our leaders have spent more energy fighting each other for the 'National Cake' than they have spent baking it. They have accepted the British borders but rejected the British sense of institutional fairness."
The Fiction: The Night of the Long Shadows
Alexander met Chief Dennis Osadebay in a quiet corner of the Island Club. Osadebay, a man of sharp intellect and poetic soul, looked at the maps spread across the table.
"They won't give us a fourth region, Alex," Osadebay said, his voice thick with resignation. "The giants have agreed on one thing: they will not let their own empires be carved up, even as they demand the British carve up the country for them."
This was the "checkered" antecedence in its purest form. Awolowo was busy building the Liberty Stadium—the first of its kind in Africa—a towering achievement of modern engineering. Yet, in the same breath, his administration was accused of using the Western Region Finance Corporation to funnel public funds into party coffers.
Alexander’s protagonist journey took him to the Creek Road in Port Harcourt, where he saw the first signs of the "Oil Curse." Shell-BP had struck oil at Oloibiri in 1956. The leaders in Lagos and Ibadan didn't see a resource to be managed for the future; they saw a new weapon in their ethnic warfare. The "success" of the early agricultural booms in cocoa and groundnuts was already being neglected for the promise of easy rent from the soil.
The 1959 Election: The Final Fraud of the Fifties
As 1959 dawned, the air turned electric. This was the "General Election" that would decide who would lead an independent Nigeria. Alexander was stationed in Kaduna, observing the Northern People's Congress (NPC).
The diction of the era had shifted. It was no longer about "Freedom"; it was about "Control." The NPC’s motto, "One North, One People," was a direct challenge to Zik’s "One Nigeria." Alexander watched as British District Officers—under pressure from London to ensure a "stable" (pro-British) transition—tilted the scales. They preferred the "conservative" North over the "radical" Southern intellectuals.
On election night, Alexander sat with a group of international journalists at the Bristol Hotel. The results were a stalemate. No party had a majority. The "checkered" nature of the leaders was revealed in the frantic, unprincipled horse-trading that followed.
Azikiwe, the great nationalist, eventually settled for a ceremonial role as Governor-General (and later President), while Tafawa Balewa became Prime Minister. It was a marriage of convenience between the North and East, designed specifically to shut out Awolowo and the West.
"The foundation is cracked," Alexander told Segun as they watched the sunrise over Lagos Lagoon. "We are starting a Republic built on a grudge. The North has the power, the East has the prestige, and the West has the grievance. This is not a country; it’s a ticking clock."
Comprehensive Achievement Ranking (1951–1959 Period)
Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (The Conciliator): Ranked highest for his ability to hold a fractured cabinet together under British tutelage, though he failed to curb the excesses of his regional bosses.
Chief Obafemi Awolowo (The Builder): Highest marks for infrastructure and education, but lowest for national inclusivity.
Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe (The Orator): Successful in internationalizing the Nigerian cause, but failed to secure a solid domestic power base.
The midnight hour of October 1, 1960, approached with a deceptive tranquility. Alexander Orishe stood on the VIP dais at Tafawa Balewa Square (then the Racecourse), his invitation card embossed with the crest of a nation about to be born. The air was a thick soup of humidity, expensive perfumes, and the sharp, metallic tang of gunpowder from the ceremonial cannons. To the casual observer, this was the zenith of achievement—the successful culmination of a decade of "checkered" struggle. To Alexander, it felt like the grand opening of a bridge built with balsa wood.
The Analysis: The Pre-Independence Policy Vacuum
The "woeful failure" that had begun in 1951 was reaching its logical conclusion. Between 1951 and 1959, the leaders had mastered the Art of the Appropriation Bill but failed in the Art of Nation-Building. The 1958 Constitutional Conference in London had been a masterclass in avoidance. Rather than resolving the "Minority Question" or creating a truly national economic plan, the leaders settled for a "Revenue Allocation Formula" that favored regional derivation. This meant that the rich regions stayed rich, and the poor regions grew resentful—a blueprint for civil war.
Alexander’s protagonist journey took a chilling turn as he looked at the seated dignitaries. There was Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, looking regal in his white babanriga, but flanked by British advisors who still held the keys to the Central Bank of Nigeria (founded just the year before in 1958). There was General Christopher Welby-Everard, the last British commander of the Nigerian Army. Alexander noticed a group of young Nigerian officers standing in the shadows—Kaduna Nzeogwu and Emmanuel Ifeajuna. Their eyes were not on the flag; they were on the politicians.
The Fiction: The Silence of the Union Jack
"Look at them, Alex," Segun whispered, leaning in close. "The politicians are dancing the high-life, but the soldiers are counting the beats."
Alexander watched as the Union Jack was lowered. For a heartbeat, there was total darkness—a symbolic void that felt like an eternity. Then, the Green-White-Green unfurled under the floodlights. The crowd roared, a primal sound of hope that nearly broke Alexander’s cynical heart.
"We have the flag," Alexander thought, "but do we have the soul?"
The "success" of the 1959 elections had left a bitter aftertaste. The Action Group was now the official opposition, and Awolowo, the man who had built the First Television Station in Africa (WNTV, 1959), was sidelined from national executive power. The "checkered" antecedence of the NCNC-NPC coalition was already showing strain. Azikiwe, the lion of African nationalism, had been muzzled with the ceremonial role of Governor-General. It was a title with all the pomp of a King but none of the power of a Clerk.
Earlier that day, Alexander had seen a confidential memo at the Ministry of Commerce. It revealed that the Groundnut Pyramids of Kano—once the pride of the North—were already being neglected. The focus had shifted entirely to the royalties from Shell-BP. The leaders had discovered that it was easier to tax an oil well than to encourage a farmer. This was the fundamental achievement gap: they had inherited a productive colonial economy and were already transforming it into a "rentier state."
The Ranking: Summary of the 1951–1960 Decadal Leadership
Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa: Ranked highest for Diplomatic Stability. He successfully navigated the transition without a colonial war (unlike Algeria or Kenya).
Chief Obafemi Awolowo: Ranked highest for Institutional Innovation. The Western Region Civil Service was, in 1959, arguably the most efficient in the developing world.
Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe: Ranked highest for Ideological Inspiration. He provided the intellectual framework for a "United States of Africa," even if he couldn't unite his own cabinet.
As the fireworks exploded over the Lagos sky, Alexander opened his journal to the final page of Chapter One. He wrote: "October 1, 1960. The giants have taken the stage. But they are standing on a trapdoor. They have replaced the British crown with an ethnic cap, and they call it progress. The ranking of their success will not be done by historians like me, but by the soldiers who are currently learning how to clean their rifles."
The chapter ends with a haunting image: Alexander walking away from the festivities, passing a group of street urchins who were already fighting over the leftover scraps from the Independence banquet. The "General Election" of 1959 had promised them a future, but the "Checkered Leaders" had only given them a show.
